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Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev: odds and preview

StartMonday, November 16, 2026 at 5:00 AM UTC
CompetitionNitto ATP Finals · Tennis
Best of 3

Our odds

Match winner
Carlos Alcaraz1.32
Daniil Medvedev3.19
Map handicap
Carlos Alcaraz (-1.5)2.27
Daniil Medvedev (+1.5)1.59
Total games 2.5
Over 2.52.03
Under 2.51.73

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Preview

Nitto ATP Finals brings Carlos Alcaraz up against Daniil Medvedev on November 16. Carlos Alcaraz go in as the side to beat, with a 71% win chance in our model (1.32).

Carlos Alcaraz, recent form: W W W W W (5-0 in wins and defeats). Daniil Medvedev, recent form: L L W W W (3-2 in wins and defeats). Head-to-head record in our data (Carlos Alcaraz wins, Daniil Medvedev wins): 1-1. Last meeting: Carlos Alcaraz 2-0 Daniil Medvedev, on October 31, 2026.

Our total line sits at 2.5: over at 2.03, under at 1.73. It is played as a best of 3, so one bad game does not settle it. Carlos Alcaraz are expected to deliver. Daniil Medvedev only need one good day to make the price look generous. Open the match in the sportsbook for the full list of markets.

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